CS2 knife odds: how many cases to get a knife

How many cases does it take to get a knife?

On average 391, but the average hides how uneven it is. Each case is a new draw with the same 0.26%, so many players get a knife much sooner and many much later: half within 271 cases, three in four within 542, nine in ten within 900. One player in a hundred opens 1,799 cases and still has none.

The keys are only part of the cost: each case costs something too, from a few cents for the most common ones to dollars for older ones. Put its price into the calculator above to see the total.

Odds of each knife and gloves

Every weapon case gives a knife or gloves 0.26% of the time; what differs is how many kinds share that chance. A case with a single knife gives it to you 1 in 391 times, a case with five knives each one 1 in 1,955. So the case you open decides your odds of one particular knife.

Knife or gloves	Best case for it	Other cases
Bowie Knife	1 in 391 in the Operation Wildfire Case	1 in 1,955 in the Dreams & Nightmares Case, Operation Riptide Case, Spectrum 2 Case and Spectrum Case
Butterfly Knife	1 in 391 in the Operation Breakout Weapon Case	1 in 1,955 in the Dreams & Nightmares Case, Operation Riptide Case, Spectrum 2 Case and Spectrum Case
Classic Knife	1 in 391 in the CS20 Case	—
Falchion Knife	1 in 391 in the Falchion Case	1 in 1,955 in the Dreams & Nightmares Case, Operation Riptide Case, Spectrum 2 Case and Spectrum Case
Huntsman Knife	1 in 391 in the Huntsman Weapon Case	1 in 1,955 in the Dreams & Nightmares Case, Operation Riptide Case, Spectrum 2 Case and Spectrum Case
Kukri Knife	1 in 391 in the Gallery Case and Kilowatt Case	—
Shadow Daggers	1 in 391 in the Shadow Case	1 in 1,955 in the Dreams & Nightmares Case, Operation Riptide Case, Spectrum 2 Case and Spectrum Case
Navaja Knife	1 in 1,564 in the Danger Zone Case, Horizon Case, Prisma 2 Case and Prisma Case	—
Nomad Knife	1 in 1,564 in the Fever Case, Fracture Case and Shattered Web Case	—
Paracord Knife	1 in 1,564 in the Fever Case, Fracture Case and Shattered Web Case	—
Skeleton Knife	1 in 1,564 in the Fever Case, Fracture Case and Shattered Web Case	—
Stiletto Knife	1 in 1,564 in the Danger Zone Case, Horizon Case, Prisma 2 Case and Prisma Case	—
Survival Knife	1 in 1,564 in the Fever Case, Fracture Case and Shattered Web Case	—
Talon Knife	1 in 1,564 in the Danger Zone Case, Horizon Case, Prisma 2 Case and Prisma Case	—
Ursus Knife	1 in 1,564 in the Danger Zone Case, Horizon Case, Prisma 2 Case and Prisma Case	—
Bayonet	1 in 1,955 in each of its 16 cases	—
Flip Knife	1 in 1,955 in each of its 16 cases	—
Gut Knife	1 in 1,955 in each of its 16 cases	—
Karambit	1 in 1,955 in each of its 16 cases	—
M9 Bayonet	1 in 1,955 in each of its 16 cases	—
Bloodhound Gloves	1 in 2,346 in the Glove Case and Operation Hydra Case	—
Broken Fang Gloves	1 in 2,346 in the Operation Broken Fang Case, Recoil Case and Snakebite Case	—
Driver Gloves	1 in 2,346 in each of its 7 cases	—
Hand Wraps	1 in 2,346 in each of its 7 cases	—
Hydra Gloves	1 in 2,346 in the Clutch Case and Revolution Case	—
Moto Gloves	1 in 2,346 in each of its 7 cases	—
Specialist Gloves	1 in 2,346 in each of its 7 cases	—
Sport Gloves	1 in 2,346 in each of its 7 cases	—

Knife and glove odds in every case

All 42 weapon cases, newest first: 35 with knives and 7 with gloves. The chance is per kind: one finish of it is rarer still, since the kind’s share is split again between its finishes.

Each case name opens it in our case simulator: free, with the same odds, so you can open a few hundred and see how long a knife takes.

Pictures and prices of every case: all CS2 cases.

Where the 0.26% comes from

Valve has never put the odds in the game. In September 2017 its Chinese publisher had to publish them under a Chinese law on random draws, as rules: each tier is five times as likely as the tier above it, a rare special item (a knife or gloves) is two fifths as likely as a Covert skin, every item of one tier has the same chance, and one item in ten is StatTrak™. For a weapon case that makes:

• Mil-Spec Grade: 79.92%, 1 in 1.25
• Restricted: 15.98%, 1 in 6
• Classified: 3.2%, 1 in 31
• Covert: 0.64%, 1 in 156
• Rare special item: 0.26%, 1 in 391

A StatTrak™ knife is one knife in ten: 0.026% of openings of a knife case, 1 in 3,910. These odds are for weapon cases; sticker capsules and souvenir packages work differently, and case sites set their own odds for their own cases (our case odds calculator works out any of them).

Source: the announcement “应文化部政策要求关于CSGO随机抽取类物品概率与结果的公示” on csgo.com.cn, 11 September 2017 (archived copy of 14 September 2017); case contents from the open CSGO-API dataset, built from the game’s own item files. Knife and glove images are Valve’s, as every marketplace shows them.

CS2 knife odds FAQ

What are the odds of getting a knife in CS2?

0.26% per weapon case, or 1 in 391. That chance is for a knife or gloves, whichever the case holds; one particular knife is rarer (see the tables above).

How many cases do you need to open to get a knife?

391 on average. Half of players get one within 271 cases and nine in ten within 900; there is no number of cases that guarantees one.

How much does it cost to unbox a knife?

About $974 in keys on average (391 keys at about $2.49 in the US), plus the price of 391 cases. Your own cost can be far lower or far higher: one player in ten pays for more than 899 keys.

Do some cases have better knife odds?

No: by Valve’s rules every weapon case gives a knife or gloves 0.26% of the time. Cases differ in which knives they hold and how many kinds share that chance, so a case with a single knife, such as the Gallery Case, Kilowatt Case and CS20 Case, gives you that knife five times as often as a five-knife case gives you any one of its five.

Is there a pity system for knives?

No. Valve’s odds give every opening the same chance, and nothing in them depends on how many cases you have opened before.

What are the odds of a StatTrak™ knife?

0.026%, 1 in 3,910 openings of a knife case: one knife in ten is StatTrak™. Gloves have no StatTrak™ version.

Which cases have gloves?

Revolution Case, Recoil Case, Snakebite Case, Operation Broken Fang Case, Clutch Case, Operation Hydra Case and Glove Case. In them gloves take the place of knives, with the same 0.26% shared between 6 kinds of gloves. The 22 Dead Hand gloves of March 2026 aren’t in any case: they come from the Dead Hand Terminal, and Valve hasn’t published how a terminal draws its offers.

Can I try opening cases for free?

Yes: our CS2 case simulator opens every Valve case with these odds, free and without sign-up. Nothing you open there is real. Real cases on case sites, with their own odds and our codes: CS2 case opening sites.