DAKEbits 18+

Case odds calculator

Enter a case’s price and the value and drop chance of each item: see what the case gives back on average and how often you beat the price.

Items in the case

The case page lists its items and their chances. Use the price you could sell an item for, in the same unit as the case price.

Average back per opening

2.25

Return to player
90%
House edge
10%
Chance to get more than the price
20%
Average loss per opening
−0.25
Average loss over 10 openings
−2.5
Chances add up to
100%

On average this case gives back 90% of its price: you lose 10 of every 100 you spend on it.

The starting numbers are a made-up example, not a real case. Use any currency or coin: results come out in the same unit. Single openings swing a lot both ways; the averages show where many openings end up.

How to use it

  1. Open the case page on the site. Most case sites list every item with its drop chance: Key-Drop, for example, shows the contents and drop chances of each case.
  2. Enter the case price and, for each item, its value and its chance. Use the price you could actually sell the item for, in the same currency or coin as the case.
  3. Check that the chances add up to 100%. If they don’t, an item is missing or mistyped.

What the numbers mean

  • Average back per opening is each item’s value times its chance, added up. Over many openings, this is what you get back per case.
  • Return to player is that average as a share of the price. 90% means that for every 100 you spend, you get 90 back on average.
  • House edge is the rest: what the site keeps on average.
  • Chance to get more than the price is how often one opening beats what you paid. A case can have a decent return and still lose most of the time, when much of its value sits in one rare item.

Why item values matter

Sites often show an item’s value in their own coins or at their own price. What you can sell it for on a marketplace may be lower, especially after fees and Steam’s trade protection. Using real selling prices gives you the honest picture.

See every site with cases on CS2 case opening sites, and the ones that give some away on free CS2 cases. To check that a draw wasn’t changed, use our provably fair checker.

This calculator shows averages, not a promise of any result. Gambling involves risk of loss: play only where it is legal for you, and only with money you can afford to lose. 18+ only.